A Scary Scenario

Okay, I have been thinking about the current world situations. As an amateur tactician, (I like to fancy myself one anyway) I look at Iraq and I see more of a terrorist threat than anything else. But the one variable in all of this is another one of the so-called “Axis of Evil”, North Korea. Let me expound on my concerns…

Scenario:
The United States and other coalition forces, having proven material breaches of the UN sanctioned investigations, decide to invade Iraq and bring them into compliance with the “No Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)” parameters imposed on them by the UN. The invasion of Iraq begins, and the US deploys its forces, estimated to require around 50,000 combat troops plus all support troops required for this size deployment. The accompanying air and naval assets are also tied up here in the South West Asia Area of Responsibility (SWA AOR).

North Korea, fully cognizant of the US’s massive deployment requirements to defeat Iraq, suddenly and overwhelmingly invades South Korea. They start with a tremendous artillery barrage, which may or may not include use of chemical weapons, across the DMZ followed by an amphibious landing south of the DMZ. Infiltrating North Korean spies and saboteurs create chaos in the rear and also assassinate higher-ranking South Korean and US leaders to sew confusion. North Korean troops, already massed on the border, pour across the 38th Parallel overwhelming the 30,000 US and South Korean troops stationed there. The US, already committed to the war in Iraq, cannot react quickly enough and with enough reinforcements to aid in the invasion. Behind the scenes it is even grimmer. China, not wanting to openly support North Korea for fear of losing the trade with the US, quietly supports North Korea with "under the table" arms and supplies, but no Chinese troops. China has absolutely nothing to lose in this situation and everything to gain. If North Korea wins, which they probably will, China then steps in and muscles a unified Korea into falling under her control. If North Korea loses, which is highly doubtful, China tells the US they must not press further than the original DMZ or China will retaliate as they did in the 1950s. Thus, China has lost nothing.

We have already lost our main bases in the Philippines and are in sour relations with the Japanese and our bases there. Loss of the Korean peninsula would be a terrible blow in our involvement in that part of the hemisphere.

Things to ponder and watch for.